Friday, October 12, 2007

As someone with the experience and capacity to post one of the more detailed, thoughtful, and appropriate responses to this...

toldya so

2 comments:

Jake said...

Heh. Yeah, you may have been a little ahead of the curve on this one. So which will it be?

1) We ignore the ruling.
2) OTB goes away.
3) We pay up by crucifying industries that had nothing to do with this but can't afford to pay the D.C. bribe?

GreatGoblin said...

we cant ignore it - the rest of the world gets to set up tariffs based on the ruling... essentially the rest of the world will be awarded several billion dollars against the value of US goods and services... which will tend to offset the devalued dollar here and there, making export of US product more expensive - and helping to drive the dollar lower.

now - will OTB go away? doubtful... it would kill the horseracing industry - and everyone knows it.

the problem is - honestly - if they open this up right now, a LOT of US cash will flee the country. see - the world historically sees the US as 'fish' - because we have cash and are absolute idiots when it comes to playing poker. There's actually the potential that more than 100b of US GDP would leave the country if they allow it... because there's nothing domestic to get into the space.