Saturday, February 09, 2008

i want to break down something i think is worth looking at...

for the sake of argument - lets say the 2 democratic candidates go into the convention lacking the votes to secure the nomination without the support of superdelegates. Let's look at how that plays out.
Lets say Clinton successfully has Michigan and Florida seated - where the party made it very clear that those states would NOT be seated and that candidates were NOT supposed to campaign there.
Ok - lets try again - say more delegates were awarded - through the voting process - to Obama than Clinton, but through dealmaking with 'superdelegates' Clinton secures the nomination.

I think it's safe to say that supporters of Obama will be upset.

Now the question is... who are the people voting for Obama - and who are the people voting for Clinton. Clinton's voters are older, union, and machine dems - except for the largish hispanic bloc. Obama's voters are younger, educated, and independent.

When the Obama supporters feel the nomination was stolen from them... how do you think they'll react. These are not people who want to be lead by the nose into the same old political story... convincing Obama supporters to tow the line for Clinton will be a lot like convincing Dean and Clark supporters to tow the line for Kerry - only a LOT harder and 4 years ago it didn't happen.

What it comes down to is this: if she wins more delegates in the election process itself - not counting michigan and florida - then she's fine. Otherwise - she will crucify the party. If I were a republican - i'd be rooting for Obama to win just enough to force Clinton to steal it. The fact is that there are a LOT of people who just wont vote for her - every day those numbers go up - and every Obama win will make the disappointment and disillusionment of a Clinton candidacy that much greater to the millions of energized 'change' voters. The apathy on the democratic side would be remarkable given 8 years of W. All McCain will have to do is put Huck or Bloomberg on the ticket...

5 comments:

fearlessvk said...

was just talking to a friend yesterday about this. both of us are on the fence about voting for hillary if she wins the nomination fair and square, but totally dead set against voting for her if she wins because of superdelegates or mi & fl. that's one election i'll sit out. i'm not voting for someone who displays utter contempt for democracy.

GreatGoblin said...

i would love to see some polling data on that one. Considering Hill is already spotting McCain 7 pts in one poll and 9 in another in a theoretical matchup - i cant imagine winning through superdelegates would do anything to improve her >50% negatives.

I know a lot of people who've been utterly turned off the idea of voting for Clinton - and now, as jake points out, with McCain being a rather different sort of republican than W, i think the idea that they'll just vote for the Dem by default is just not going to happen.

Now - lets imagine something else... a hardfought campaign where Clinton doesnt win outright (which seems a reasonable assumption at this point) - and Clinton bows out saying 'after listening to my opponent over the course of these 9 months, i've come to realize he's the best answer' - Clinton as kingmaker... damn if she wouldn't have Gore-like admiration - and damn if that wouldn't bring a LOT of independents firmly into the fold.

I know... a selfless act by a politician? What do you think this is, Rohan?

robyncz said...

Your Clinton as king maker scenario makes me all misty eyed. Seriously. Can you imagine what that would do for politics in this country? It'd be a whole new world--for a few years at least.

As for Hillary, I think she's got what it takes to do the job--but I don't think the end justifies the means. I don't like the "feel" of her campaign. It makes me itchy.

Other than your beautiful fantasy scenario, I think only thing she could do at this point to get me into her corner would be to tell Bill to shut the fuck up and go bake some cookies. Man. He needs to stop "helping." Whenever I see him, all I can think about is how much trouble he got himself into, and THAT was while he was busy presidenting. Now, imagine that same ego, constantly in the public eye once again, but WITHOUT the workload he carried as president. Nothing but hubris and the free time to use it.

YIKES.

GreatGoblin said...

The problem is that even if Bill shuts up now - it's not like he's going to shut up later. He's a freakin lightning rod for the right - and you add to that the fact that pubs tend to vote tactically... and Clinton is just in a bad spot unless she wins it right.

That said - even if she does win it outright - you've got some serious problems. My parents, who voted dem 4 years ago, who voted obama on super tuesday, have made it clear they'll vote mccain if hillary is the dem. Anecdotal? yes... but how much of that in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida will it take to swing this thing to the pubs.

Look at this whole pimping chelsea debacle. So freakin what - can the 'vast rightwing conspiracy' crap and quit whining about people treating you unfairly. Obama being lambasted as a muslim terrorist was a LOT worse and you dont see him whining about it. Gah. Cynical 'signal to noise' play to drown out the 'you keep losing' questions... and it implies she doesnt think we're smart enough to notice. Every day i like her less...

fearlessvk said...

Now - lets imagine something else... a hardfought campaign where Clinton doesnt win outright (which seems a reasonable assumption at this point) - and Clinton bows out saying 'after listening to my opponent over the course of these 9 months, i've come to realize he's the best answer' - Clinton as kingmaker... damn if she wouldn't have Gore-like admiration - and damn if that wouldn't bring a LOT of independents firmly into the fold.

dude, if this happens, i promise to eat my shoes.

Look at this whole pimping chelsea debacle. So freakin what - can the 'vast rightwing conspiracy' crap and quit whining about people treating you unfairly. Obama being lambasted as a muslim terrorist was a LOT worse and you dont see him whining about it.

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